[h=1]How to bet the Champions League final: Title, goal total and prop picks[/h]James EasthamSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
For the second time in three seasons Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid go head-to-head in the Champions League final.
Where does the betting value lie? ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham talks you through the game's smart selections, including title pick, goal total and a prop bet.
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Note: Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, should you back a team 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled). If you back a team -1.0 Asian handicap and the team you've backed wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled). This "safety net" of having your stakes returned is the primary difference between Asian handicap and handicap betting.
[h=2]Champions League final[/h][h=2]Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid[/h]Asian handicap: Real Madrid -0.25 (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid +0.25 (-118)
3-way line: Real Madrid +140 / Atletico Madrid +225 / Draw +215
To win the trophy: Real Madrid -140 / Atletico Madrid +120
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 30 percent draw
Total: 2 (Over -120, Under +100)
Picking a side
We backed Real Madrid at +550 to win the Champions League before the knockout stages began. If you followed that recommendation our advice would be to back Atletico to win the trophy (+120) now in order to guarantee a profit.
Football bettors who have written off Atletico Madrid this season have found to their cost what a dangerous policy that can be. Diego Simeone's side saw off tournament favourites Barcelona in the quarter-finals (3-2 on aggregate) before beating Bayern Munich (2-2, away-goals victory) in the semi-finals to take their place in the final for the second time in three seasons.
Atletico are the underdogs, with the market suggesting they have only a 31 percent shot of winning the game in 90 minutes. Real are given a 42 percent chance, with the draw 32 percent (yes, that adds up to 105 percent as it includes the bookmakers' overround or margin, which is how they make their profits).
Yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Atletico ought to be on a par with their more favoured rivals from across the Spanish capital. Atletico came out on top in head-to-head clashes this season, winning away (1-0 in February) and drawing at home (1-1 in October). Atletico (third) also finished only two points behind Real (second) in the final La Liga standings.
Since Simeone's first full season as manager (2012-13), Atletico's 90-minute head-to-head record is 5-5-6 in all competitions, so there is literally nothing to pick between the sides. Those figures include the 1-1 90-minute draw between the sides in the 2014 Champions League final (Real won 4-1 in extra-time). In short, there is no reason to back Real to win in 90 minutes. Atletico (+225) or the draw (+215) are the logical choices in the 3-way line market, with Atletico the sensible handicap pick.
Goal total
There is evidence this may be higher-scoring game than the market suggests. The total line has been set fairly low at 2 rather than 2.25 or 2.5. This season's head-to-head matchups produced only three goals (1-1 and 1-0), so goals can be scarce when these sides meet.
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</article>The 16-game sample since 2012-13, however, paints a different picture: Six of those matches have had three goals or more, six have had exactly two goals and only four have had fewer than two goals. The three Champions League meetings have been lower-scoring affairs -- 0-0, 1-0 (to Real) -- but going high is more justifiable than going low, especially as the historic Champions League final data also supports the choice. The past 10 (and past 20) finals have averaged 2.7 goals a game (90 minutes), and the majority of matches have broken the goals barrier set this weekend: 11 finals have featured three goals or more, seven have had exactly two goals and only two finals -- the 1998 Real Madrid vs. Juventus final (1-0) and 2003 AC Milan vs. Juventus final (0-0) -- have featured fewer than two goals.
Prop bet
There are a number of prop bets but as usual with these wagers it is difficult to justify an investment. For example, take the "Will A Goal Be Scored In The First 30 Minutes Of The Match?" market: A goal has been scored in the opening 30 minutes of 10 of the past 20 Champions League finals, so there is little value in backing Yes (+105) or No (-120).
One props market that may offer value is "Will Both Teams Score?", with "Yes" the underdog at +105 while "No" is at -125. Yet both sides have scored in eight of the past 10 Champions League finals and 14 of the past 20. On that basis, "Yes" would be the smart choice.
ESPN Chalk picks:
- Atletico Madrid +0.25 Asian handicap (-118)
- Over 2 goals (-120)
- "Yes" in the "Will Both Teams Score?" market (+105)
James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He also worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (UK).
ESPN INSIDER
For the second time in three seasons Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid go head-to-head in the Champions League final.
Where does the betting value lie? ESPN Chalk handicapper James Eastham talks you through the game's smart selections, including title pick, goal total and a prop bet.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Note: Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, should you back a team 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled). If you back a team -1.0 Asian handicap and the team you've backed wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled). This "safety net" of having your stakes returned is the primary difference between Asian handicap and handicap betting.
[h=2]Champions League final[/h][h=2]Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid[/h]Asian handicap: Real Madrid -0.25 (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid +0.25 (-118)
3-way line: Real Madrid +140 / Atletico Madrid +225 / Draw +215
To win the trophy: Real Madrid -140 / Atletico Madrid +120
PickCenter public consensus moneyline pick: 30 percent draw
Total: 2 (Over -120, Under +100)
Picking a side
We backed Real Madrid at +550 to win the Champions League before the knockout stages began. If you followed that recommendation our advice would be to back Atletico to win the trophy (+120) now in order to guarantee a profit.
Football bettors who have written off Atletico Madrid this season have found to their cost what a dangerous policy that can be. Diego Simeone's side saw off tournament favourites Barcelona in the quarter-finals (3-2 on aggregate) before beating Bayern Munich (2-2, away-goals victory) in the semi-finals to take their place in the final for the second time in three seasons.
Atletico are the underdogs, with the market suggesting they have only a 31 percent shot of winning the game in 90 minutes. Real are given a 42 percent chance, with the draw 32 percent (yes, that adds up to 105 percent as it includes the bookmakers' overround or margin, which is how they make their profits).
Yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Atletico ought to be on a par with their more favoured rivals from across the Spanish capital. Atletico came out on top in head-to-head clashes this season, winning away (1-0 in February) and drawing at home (1-1 in October). Atletico (third) also finished only two points behind Real (second) in the final La Liga standings.
Since Simeone's first full season as manager (2012-13), Atletico's 90-minute head-to-head record is 5-5-6 in all competitions, so there is literally nothing to pick between the sides. Those figures include the 1-1 90-minute draw between the sides in the 2014 Champions League final (Real won 4-1 in extra-time). In short, there is no reason to back Real to win in 90 minutes. Atletico (+225) or the draw (+215) are the logical choices in the 3-way line market, with Atletico the sensible handicap pick.
Goal total
There is evidence this may be higher-scoring game than the market suggests. The total line has been set fairly low at 2 rather than 2.25 or 2.5. This season's head-to-head matchups produced only three goals (1-1 and 1-0), so goals can be scarce when these sides meet.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The 16-game sample since 2012-13, however, paints a different picture: Six of those matches have had three goals or more, six have had exactly two goals and only four have had fewer than two goals. The three Champions League meetings have been lower-scoring affairs -- 0-0, 1-0 (to Real) -- but going high is more justifiable than going low, especially as the historic Champions League final data also supports the choice. The past 10 (and past 20) finals have averaged 2.7 goals a game (90 minutes), and the majority of matches have broken the goals barrier set this weekend: 11 finals have featured three goals or more, seven have had exactly two goals and only two finals -- the 1998 Real Madrid vs. Juventus final (1-0) and 2003 AC Milan vs. Juventus final (0-0) -- have featured fewer than two goals.
Prop bet
There are a number of prop bets but as usual with these wagers it is difficult to justify an investment. For example, take the "Will A Goal Be Scored In The First 30 Minutes Of The Match?" market: A goal has been scored in the opening 30 minutes of 10 of the past 20 Champions League finals, so there is little value in backing Yes (+105) or No (-120).
One props market that may offer value is "Will Both Teams Score?", with "Yes" the underdog at +105 while "No" is at -125. Yet both sides have scored in eight of the past 10 Champions League finals and 14 of the past 20. On that basis, "Yes" would be the smart choice.
ESPN Chalk picks:
- Atletico Madrid +0.25 Asian handicap (-118)
- Over 2 goals (-120)
- "Yes" in the "Will Both Teams Score?" market (+105)
James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He also worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (UK).
